PLP’s Darron Pickstock Wins Golden Isles

This is a preliminary data analysis. We will revisit the data at the official count tomorrow.

The 2025 Golden Isles by-election has concluded with Darron Pickstock of the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) securing a decisive and data-driven victory. With all polling divisions tabulated and turnout stabilizing at 47.9%, the numbers confirm Pickstock as the Member of Parliament-Elect for Golden Isles.

A Commanding Lead Across Polling Divisions

Pickstock ended the night with 1,842 votes, capturing 48.6% of the total ballots cast. His closest opponent, Brian Brown of the Free National Movement (FNM), finished with 1,629 votes (43.0%). The PLP’s final margin of +213 votes reflects a stable and broad-based advantage built consistently across multiple polling divisions.

A detailed review of precinct-level performance shows several strongholds that anchored Pickstock’s win:

P1: 244 votes (61.2%)
P8: 109 votes (61.2%)
P9: 205 votes (54.1%)
P14: 208 votes (60.6%)

These four divisions alone provided a significant buffer that the FNM was unable to overcome, even in divisions where they showed improved performance.

FNM Performance Strong but Insufficient

Brian Brown delivered competitive results in several areas—most notably P2, P3, P5, P6, and P12, where his vote share ranged from 47% to 53%. However, these gains were offset by PLP strongholds that consistently generated wider margins.

Data analysts note that even if the FNM’s advance poll weighting were maximized in their favour, the PLP’s wider performance across the constituency made an FNM comeback mathematically implausible.

Third-Party Impact Minimal

Brian Rolle (COI): 305 votes (8.0%)
Karen Butler (IND): 13 votes (0.3%)

While the Coalition of Independents registered pockets of support in divisions such as P2, P3, P4, and P10, their totals did not meaningfully affect the PLP–FNM race trajectory.

Turnout Trends and Voter Engagement

Turnout stood at 3,798 ballots cast, representing 47.9% of eligible voters. This is considered low for the district, but the distribution of voters who did participate decisively favoured the PLP. Analysts point out that PLP supporters turned out consistently across all major polling divisions, whereas the FNM’s support appeared concentrated and less expanded.

Path to Victory: Why the PLP Prevailed

Several factors shaped the final outcome:

1. Broad Geographic Performance

The PLP led or remained competitive in nearly every major polling division. Their dominance in P1, P8, P9, and P14 created a fortress of votes.

2. High Percentage Wins in Key Divisions

Pickstock repeatedly surpassed the 50–60% range, demonstrating strong grassroots momentum.

3. FNM Gains Not Wide Enough

Though Brown performed well in selective areas, his vote share rarely translated into large margins—limiting his ability to chip into the PLP lead.

4. Consistency Across the Ballot

The PLP vote never collapsed in any division; even in FNM-leaning zones, Pickstock remained competitive.

Conclusion: Darron Pickstock Unofficially Declared The Winner

With all calculations completed, Darron Pickstock is the Unofficial MP-Elect for Golden Isles. His 48.6% share, comfortable 213-vote margin, and broad polling-division strength provide a clear mandate from the constituency.

Golden Isles now prepares to welcome its newly elected representative as Pickstock transitions from candidate to Member of Parliament, following a data-backed, constituency-wide victory.

We will revisit the data at the official count tomorrow.

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